1、 Industry Development Trends: Scale Expansion, Integrated Integration, and Green Transformation

Capacity expansion and regional rebalancing

China's refining capacity continues to expand, expected to exceed 980 million tons per year by 2025. In the next five years, major refining projects will be put into operation, forming a new production capacity pattern of "Yangtze River Delta+Northeast+Northwest".

Yangtze River Delta: After the commissioning of projects such as Zhenhai Refinery and Daxie Petrochemical, the regional refining capacity reached 220 million tons per year, accounting for 25% of the country's total. The self-sufficiency rate of chemical raw materials increased to 70%, and the dependence on imports decreased to 15%.

Northeast China: After the Huajin Aramco project (15 million tons/year) is put into operation, the refining capacity in Northeast China has increased to 110 million tons/year, and the supply capacity of naphtha has increased by 5 million tons/year, driving a 40% increase in the output value of local chemical parks.

Northwest: Tahe Petrochemical in Xinjiang is undergoing renovation and expansion (5 million tons/year), relying on heavy oil resources to upgrade to a "fuel+chemical" refinery, with a focus on producing specialty products such as asphalt and coking wax oil.

Product structure upgrade: transition from fuel based to chemical based

The yield of refined oil has decreased: the industry's yield of refined oil has dropped from 62% in 2023 to below 50% in 2030, and the proportion of specialty fuels such as aviation kerosene and high-end lubricants has increased to 20%.

High end chemical products: Polyolefins will be upgraded to high-end grades such as metallocene and ultra-low density polyethylene. By 2030, the self-sufficiency rate of high-end polyolefins will increase from the current 35% to 60%.

The impact of new energy is forcing transformation: the rapid growth of new energy vehicles is squeezing the traditional fuel market. Refineries need to flexibly adjust their product structure and increase the production of high value-added chemical products.

Green and Low Carbon Transformation: Technology Driven and Policy Guided

Clean production technology: processes such as residual oil hydrogenation desulfurization and heavy oil catalytic cracking reduce pollutant emissions, with a sulfur recovery and utilization rate of over 98.5% and a wastewater reuse rate of over 96%.

Layout in the field of new energy: Refining companies are extending into new energy sectors such as hydrogen energy and sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), such as Honeywell UOP's Ecofinance ? The technology uses kitchen waste oil as raw material to produce SAF.

Intelligent management: Build an intelligent production management system, monitor production data in real-time, optimize control processes, and reduce energy consumption and costs.